Chaos Ventured

College Football Model 2022

What you get:

  • CFB model 2022: All game projections
  • Top Ensemble Plays of the Week – Premium selections with best long term win rate

College football handicapping has the unique situation of heavily mismatched teams playing each other. To adjust for this, I’ve created a two tier mode to handicap two different elements of the game:


In the projections, you will see a projected spread using the talent model, as well as the performance model, and then a value associated with each.

Grading the results from 2021, I’ve discovered the profitable segments in the projections.


In summary, the model performs well when both value models show positive value (53.9% winners on 317 plays). So if you start your process by selecting only games that show double positive value, you’re off to a great start.

But we can get even better. For instance:

Teams with both values positive, playing a below average team (team rating below 100): 61% winners on 112 plays.
Teams with both values positive, playin on the road: 58% winners on 46 plays.
Teams with both values positive, as a favorite playing on the road: 63% winners on 19 plays.

**NEW 2022 Season:

I am working with the developer to add more advanced filters to the model as we get into the season. I invite you to join me as we dive into this 2022 college football season!

All proceeds are reinvested into data feeds, technology, and developers as we continue the quest towards mastery.


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