NFL Crunch week 4
Team Yard Model
I’ve done some data studies into teasers in the NFL. The results look very good when selecting only the teams that satify the following criteria:
- Player component advantage
- Team yard model advantage (new chart posted above)
- Cross a key number (3 or 7), ideally both
I have 5 teams that strongly qualify, constructing a portfolio of 10 combinations of 6 point teasers with odds of -120 (ties push).
5 legs:
Panthers +10
Colts +8
Chiefs -1
Bucs -1
Packers -0.5
Combinations:
0.5* Panthers +10, Colts +8
0.5* Panthers +10, Chiefs -1
0.5* Panthers +10, Bucs -1
0.5* Panthers +10, Packers -0.5
0.5* Colts +8, Chiefs -1
0.5* Colts +8, Bucs -1
0.5* Colts +8, Packers -0.5
0.5* Chiefs -1, Bucs -1
0.5* Chiefs -1, Packers -0.5
0.5* Bucs -1, Packers -0.5
1* Colts vs Dolphins UNDER 42.5 -110
1* Giants vs Saints UNDER 42 -110
0.5* Steelers vs Packers UNDER 45.5 -110
