Chaos Ventured

How to bet on nba props

nba firepower: the aim is to capture the overall offensive creation firepower each team has on a given night using the actual starting lineups. I’ve also calculated a defensive rating for every player, to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each particular matchup, measured in standard deviations above/below league average.

Key:
Team: Team name
Spread: Vegas spread
Guard vs D: offensive creation firepower for this team at Guard position, combined with opponent defensive rating at Guard position
Forward vs D: offensive creation firepower for this team at Forward position, combined with opponent defensive rating at Forward position
Center vs D: offensive creation firepower for this team at Center position, combined with opponent defensive rating at Center position
Team Adv: Overall team offensive creation firepower versus overall opponent team defense ability
Combo: Sum of team adv
Side Advantage: Difference between team adv

Example 1

Houston example

Summary: Overall firepower for this matchup is about even, but the Rockets are getting +8, providing value

Result: Hou 106 vs Mem 113 (Houston Cover)

Example 2

Summary: Denver will enjoy a big advantage at Center in this matchup, while San Antonio will have no advantages and -1.5 overall team advantage vs Denver defense. Spread was only Denver -1 at the time.

Result: Denver 127 vs San Antonio 112 (Denver Cover)

Additional Resources (how to build sports betting models):

  1. How to build a basketball play prop betting model: https://chaosventured.com/nba-betting-model-excel/
  2. How to build a sports betting model: https://chaosventured.com/how-to-build-sports-betting-model/
  3. How to build NFL betting model in excel: https://chaosventured.com/nfl-football-sports-betting-model-excel-template/