There was a combination of stats so predictive that nba took if off their website.
What is the stat?
A wide open corner 3 from Steph Curry is worth 2.3 points on average. But the same wide open corner 3 from Draymond Green is only worth 1.5 points.
He might make or miss that particular shot (0 or 3 points), but the truth is a little more complicated.
Every shot from every player has an expected value.
SHOT EV uses long term player shooting averages, location on the floor, and defender disturbance to calculate the expected value of each shot.
I’ve built a team of people watching the replay of every shot to document the information we need to complete the calculation. We can now find what the score should have been, removing the elements of luck.
How to bet on nba spreads
nba firepower: the aim is to capture the overall offensive creation firepower each team has on a given night using the actual starting lineups. I’ve also calculated a defensive rating for every player, to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each particular matchup, measured in standard deviations above/below league average.
Firepower recalculates each players stats from raw data every day. It’s easy to find the player stats from last season, or this season to date, but what if you want exactly the last 10 games? or last 30 games? Or last 82 games? I had to write the complete code to get this exact number to use in my formulas. To find individual player win share requires 452 lines of code!
Firepower Key:
Team: Team name
Spread: Vegas spread
PG, SG, SF, PF, C: Offensive creation firepower for each position, combined with opponent defensive rating at the opposing position.
Team Power: Overall team offensive creation firepower.
Combo Power: Total offensive creation firepower of both teams combined.
Side Advantage: Overall advantage for each team in this matchup.
Stack the Deck Key:
Rest: # of days since last team game.
Roster Luck: Has a team been playing a lot of games without one of their main frontline starters? Have they played other teams missing their frontline starters? Higher is projecting the team to be better in the future.
Schedule Luck: Has the team been fortunate with back-to-back scheduling luck? Now you can quickly see how fortunate or unfotunate each team has been so far this season. Higher is projecting the team to be better in the future.
TO Luck: Turnover luck compared to opponent. Higher is projecting the team to be better in the future.
Stack Match: Sum of luck factors compared to opponent. Higher is projecting the team to be better in the future.
Shot EV Match: Every shot from every player has an expected value. SHOT EV uses long term player shooting averages, location on the floor, and defender disturbance to calculate the expected value of each shot. This metrics shows how a team has been under or overpreforming their expectation. Higher is projecting the team to be better in the future.
