How to bet on NFL games
Advanced Matchup Dashboards – Quickly identify value with Z-Score analytics combining offense & defense matchups
If you are looking for a way to simplify your NFL handicapping, I have created a chart to give you a better understanding of the particular matchups on the field.
Pass OL: Offensive line pass block ratings combined with opposing defensive line pass rush ratings for each matchup. Higher is better for offense (measured in standard deviations from league average).
Run OL: Offensive line run block ratings combined with opposing defensive line run stop ratings for each matchup. Higher is better for offense (measured in standard deviations from league average).
TE vs D: Tight End pass catching ratings vs opposing defense rating to defend opposing tight ends. Higher is better for offense (measured in standard deviations from league average).
WR vs D: Combined wide receiver pass catch ratings vs opposing defense rating to defend opposing wide receivers. Higher is better for offense (measured in standard deviations from league average).
Component Sum: Sum of each team’s component ratings.
Combo: Sum of each team’s component sum (used for playing totals).
Side Advantage: Team A component sum minus Team B component sum (used to understand overall team advantage).
Key:
NFL 1: “Road dog with firepower” 61% winners on 59 plays
NFL 2: “Home dog with a punchers chance” 63% winners on 19 plays
NFL 3 (a&b): “Dog in a low firepower matchup” a (road): 75% winners on 24 plays b (home): 77% winners on 9 plays
NFL 4: “Elite Under” 62% winners on 45 plays
NFL 5: “Road favs ready to crush”
Premium: Boosted as a premium play based on new filters in development (* or **)
Pass: I am passing on this play based on new filters in development
Teaser: Qualifies as a premium teaser leg (I play 2 or 3 team 6-pt teasers based on best odds payout available at the time)