Chaos Ventured

NFL Crunch Model 2023

What you get:

  • Advanced Matchup Dashboards – Quickly identify value with Z-Score analytics combining offense & defense matchups
  • Crunch Player Grades – Advanced player ratings featuring 2 year weighted-decay
  • NFL Crunch Bot Picks – Professional Model with proven results


Starting week 2 of last season, I developed a new NFL model using Z-Score analytics to measure the relative advantages for the offensive & defensive player matchups.

In preperation for this season, I have found some nice pockets of value using this model.

Here are the gems:

Seg 1: “Road dog with firepower” 61% winners on 59 plays

Seg 2: “Home dog with a punchers chance” 63% winners on 19 plays

Seg 3 (a&b): “Dog in a low firepower matchup” a (road): 75% winners on 24 plays b (home): 77% winners on 9 plays

Seg 4: “Elite Under” 62% winners on 45 plays

You can view the NFL log of plays- segmented by tabs: ().

All proceeds are reinvested into data feeds, technology, and developers as we continue the quest towards mastery.


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